More in Common are the first pollster to record a Labour lead in the Burnham era. Polling with fieldwork completed today sees Labour move ahead by 4 points which is the first lead recorded by them since March 2025 and their highest share since November 2024. Post-Makerfield Burnham's
Keiran Pedley writing for Ipsos asks as Keir Starmer prepares to depart Downing Street, ‘how did it come to this?’ How did someone who won such a landslide majority in July 2024 end up being replaced two years later? How did it all go wrong so quickly? Pedley points out
Amidst much talk of an upcoming "Burnham Bounce" for Labour it is noticeable that his personal ratings have gone down. A YouGov/Times survey – conducted on 24-25 June, following Keir Starmer’s resignation – shows that Andy Burnham has taken a hit to his personal ratings. This latest poll
Public opinion towards Starmer's period in Downing Street remains broadly negative; just 14% are satisfied with the way the government has been running the country, compared to 78% who are dissatisfied according to data from Ipsos. 63% of the public disagree that the Starmer government is competent, and
The latest data from Ipsos shows that whilst the Starmer-led government faces intense public criticism, opposition leaders have yet to secure a definitive personal breakthrough with the British electorate. * Kemi Badenoch registers the highest individual satisfaction among the leaders asked about at 28%, with 50% dissatisfied, yielding a net score
Averaging out the five constituency polls carried out in Makerfield the Labour lead over Reform was 7 points and on the same basis Restore was polling 7 points on average. Which means it looks like, according to the pollsters, that Rupert Lowe's Restore Party will put Andy Burnham
Survation has, bravely, conducted a new second poll of the Makerfield constituency. Fieldwork was conducted by telephone among 518 adults in the constituency between May 26 and June 1. The survey was done by telephone interview. Targets for the weighted data were derived from Office for National Statistics data and
Survation has conducted a telephone poll in the constituency on behalf of Election Data Ltd.* Fieldwork was conducted by telephone among 504 adults in the constituency between 18th and 22nd May 2026. Andy Burnham leads Robert Kenyon by three points in Survation's first poll of the Makerfield by-election,
YouGov surveyed 706 Labour members about Starmer’s performance as PM and his potential challengers. Wes Streeting in a speech today to the House of Commons on his resignation talked about his "rebellious hope". On the basis of the survey he has no hope. * Most Labour members think
Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?
According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,
Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -
Local Elections
Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour
Reform UK
Karl Turner, the long-serving Labour MP for Kingston upon Hull East (first elected in 2010 and a local born-and-bred Hull man), is already in open conflict with the Labour leadership. As of today (31 March 2026), he has had the Labour whip suspended after repeated public criticism of Starmer’s
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety," argued Benjamin Franklin, despite his wise advice time after time surveys show that on civil liberties questions the general public prefer security over liberty. The Survation Policy Intelligence Unit (SPIU)
Ipsos MORI
The British public's optimism on the economy has reached a level lower than was seen after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. According to the Ipsos Economic Optimism Index, in March 2026, the net economic optimism index stood at -66. This figure is even less optimistic than the -64
Survation
Since the first strikes were launched by the US and Israel on Iran, public scepticism and reluctance towards the UK’s involvement in the war has grown steadily. In recent polling by Survation, nearly half of respondents (49%) want to remain neutral with a focus on protecting British interests. A
Conservative Party
The University of Liverpool's Dr David Jeffrey thinks "this is because Kemi's boost in net favourability is not down to people liking her more, but rather fewer people disliking her - and you don't win over voters in opposition by indifference." Dr
Ipsos MORI
Keir Starmer’s approval ratings keep getting worse. In a recent poll by YouGov, 73% of respondents said he was performing “Badly” in office. Meanwhile, Opinium reported that Starmer's net approval rates have dropped to a record low of -49 %, lower than the record low rankings of Boris
Opinium
The latest Opinium poll is the first poll in 3 weeks to show Reform back at or above 30%. Most recent polls show that voter intentions in favour of Reform peaked in November and have been in a slow decline since the beginning of the year, currently translating on our
By-Election
The eve-of-poll Opinium constituency poll makes it a three way race with the Greens winning within the margin of error. Which means no-one really knows until the votes are counted. This analysis last night from the Mail on Sunday's Dan Hodges covers all bases: We will know soon
By-Election
Full Fact reported last week that "an advert shared by the Labour Party features energy secretary Ed Miliband claiming that the “real polling” shows that the upcoming by-election in Gorton and Denton is a “fight between Labour and Reform”. It also includes a bar chart, which shows Reform UK
projections
As we work on updating the database, dealing with edge cases and debugging the algorithm's outputs we're are now confident that our two basic models are working as expected. At this stage of the election cycle we are running two models - a conventional uniform national
We have had a long hiatus since the last general election, basically taking 2025 off. We're coming back for a new electoral cycle anticipating a more complex psephological landscape. Currently we're doing a lot of technical work, data hygiene, candidate uploading and bug fixing. So some
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