Survation's Makerfield Poll Has Labour's Burnham Leading

Survation has conducted a telephone poll in the constituency on behalf of Election Data Ltd.* Fieldwork was conducted by telephone among 504 adults in the constituency between 18 and 22 May 2026.

Andy Burnham leads Robert Kenyon by three points in Survation's first poll of the Makerfield by-election, with the Greater Manchester Mayor's personal vote pulling Labour into a narrow lead in a seat where Reform UK leads on generic Westminster voting intention by eleven.

"And if the by-election was held tomorrow, and the following candidates were standing, for which candidate would you vote?"

Base: 369 respondents likely to vote in the by-election, factored by likelihood to vote, with undecided and refused removed. Source: Survation for Election Data Ltd, Fieldwork: 18–22 May 2026.

At the start of the campaign, Burnham leads on 43% to Kenyon's 40%. Rebecca Shepherd, standing for Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain, is on 7% in what is the party's first parliamentary contest. The Liberal Democrats are on 4%, the Green candidate on 3% (the Greens were in the process of reselecting during fieldwork), and the Conservatives on 2%.

Survation are keen to stress the early nature of this fieldwork. The period covered reflects a volatile candidate picture - the Green candidate entering and withdrawing from the contest - as well as Restore GB's entry, and was conducted largely prior to Andy Burnham's campaign launch last Friday.

Westminster voting intention
"If a general election were taking place tomorrow and candidates from all political parties were standing, for which party would you vote?"

Survation say "On a generic Westminster ballot, with no candidate names attached, Reform UK leads Labour by eleven points in Makerfield. The eleven-point Reform lead in a generic ballot, set against a three-point Labour lead in the named-candidate by-election ballot, is the size of the Burnham effect in this poll: enough to put Labour narrowly in front of Reform, not enough to put the seat beyond reach."

Burnham does well with woman, less so with men.

There is a clear age split too:

Survation should be commended for risking their reputation on a single constituency poll again, they are notoriously hard to do. In Islington North they came a cropper in the General Election when they predicted the Labour candidate would beat Jeremy Corbyn who was standing as an independent. Jeremy Corbyn romped home with a double digit margin over the Labour candidate that Survation had projected to win.

● Full data tables, including all crossbreaks, are available to download here.