Models

UK Polling Report incorporates various basic predictive models, as detailed below. These predictions are for informational purposes only and should not be taken as indicative of any definitive result.

All models weight recent polls for salience and account for geographical coverage.

Uniform National Swing

A uniform national swing (UNS) model assumes that the change in vote share at the national level can be applied similarly across all constituencies. UNS has proven acceptably accurate in past elections, given its simplicity.

Incumbent Weighted

This model is similar to UNS but applies an additional weighting to the vote share of the incumbent party or MP.

Minimum Vote Share

This model is similar to UNS but assumes a minimum level of vote share for each party within a seat. This vote share varies by and is not necessarily applied to all parties within a seat.

Default Model

The UK Polling Report house model incorporates all three of the above models, as well as additional seat-by-seat adjustments.

Our intention is to add more models during this website's beta period, and ultimately make all model parameters fully adjustable by users.