Has Reform Peaked Too Early?
The latest Opinium poll is the first poll in 3 weeks to show Reform back at or above 30%.
Most recent polls show that voter intentions in favour of Reform peaked in November and have been in a slow decline since the beginning of the year, currently translating on our default model into 274 seats.
Reform is well short of the 326 required for an overall majority; the highest point in November showed 343 seats whilst the party was projected to be comfortably above the 300 seat mark until last month. Since then, the Reform lead has narrowed, while Labour and the Conservatives have both stabilised. Whilst none of this is an imminent collapse and Reform is still ahead, they are no longer on an upward trajectory.
If the Green Party’s victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election and Farage’s reaction are anything to go by, Reform could have peaked too soon before the local elections this May. After claiming that Reform won the by-election “among British-born voters”, Farage has called for new restrictions on voting. He has said that he intends to end the situation where Commonwealth citizens can vote in UK elections if they can prove they reside in a constituency, and has also proposed to change the laws in order to restrict postal voting.
If Reform's peak came in November, the question now is whether the remaining weeks will see recovery or further deterioration ahead of the crucial local elections in May.
