Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour and more than 500 from the Tories.  Ben qualifies this saying it is based on low expected turnouts.

The worst result in local elections in the last decade saw the Tories lose 68% of their councillors in 2025. If Ben is right Labour could exceed that and lose some 80% of the council seats they are defending in England. Which seems to be on the toppy side.