General Election

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives - currently project to win 103 seats. Together they would be able to form a knife edge 3 seat majority government. Possibly bolstered by some combination of Ulster unionists.

Labour with a projected 154 seats would need to combine to form a rainbow coalition with the Liberal Democrats (77), SNP (44) and the Greens (9) for a 284 seat bloc. Given the margin of error and how far out we are from a general election a relatively small improvement in Labour's standing could easily give them a majority coalition.

For Labour or the Conservatives to rebound to such a degree they could form a one party majority government now looks improbable in the new political landscape.

Makerfield Pollsters Expect Restore to Cost Reform the Election

Averaging out the five constituency polls carried out in Makerfield the Labour lead over Reform was 7 points and on the same basis Restore was polling 7 points on average. Which means it looks like, according to the pollsters, that Rupert Lowe's Restore Party will put Andy Burnham

Second Survation Makerfield Poll Confirms Burnham Lead

Survation has, bravely, conducted a new second poll of the Makerfield constituency. Fieldwork was conducted by telephone among 518 adults in the constituency between May 26 and June 1. The survey was done by telephone interview. Targets for the weighted data were derived from Office for National Statistics data and

Survation's Makerfield Poll Has Labour's Burnham Leading

Survation has conducted a telephone poll in the constituency on behalf of Election Data Ltd.* Fieldwork was conducted by telephone among 504 adults in the constituency between 18th and 22nd May 2026. Andy Burnham leads Robert Kenyon by three points in Survation's first poll of the Makerfield by-election,

'Rebellious Hopeful' Wes Streeting Will Get a Thrashing from Labour Members

YouGov surveyed 706 Labour members about Starmer’s performance as PM and his potential challengers. Wes Streeting in a speech today to the House of Commons on his resignation talked about his "rebellious hope". On the basis of the survey he has no hope. * Most Labour members think

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Makerfield Pollsters Expect Restore to Cost Reform the Election

Second Survation Makerfield Poll Confirms Burnham Lead

Survation's Makerfield Poll Has Labour's Burnham Leading

'Rebellious Hopeful' Wes Streeting Will Get a Thrashing from Labour Members