Reform UK
Based on current polling a traditional simple uniform swing projection gives Labour 285 seats, Reform 76 seats and the Conservatives almost double with 141 seats. Labour pulled ahead of Reform in mid-July and are now projected to still be 40 seats short of a majority. The Tories crossed over and
More in Common
New polling from More in Common has Labour leading in the first poll of the Autumn, with the Conservatives displacing Reform by one percentage point. Which is the first time in 18 months that the Conservatives are ahead with this pollster. As Reform kick off party conference season they will
General Election
Despite polls since the Clacton by-election giving Reform an average lead over the Conservatives of 5 percentage points our default model now shows that on current polling the Conservatives would win 27 seats more than Reform. Labour would win 274 seats, more than double the trailing Tories. The heady days
Makerfield
Averaging out the five constituency polls carried out in Makerfield the Labour lead over Reform was 7 points and on the same basis Restore was polling 7 points on average. Which means it looks like, according to the pollsters, that Rupert Lowe's Restore Party will put Andy Burnham
Reform UK
Karl Turner, the long-serving Labour MP for Kingston upon Hull East (first elected in 2010 and a local born-and-bred Hull man), is already in open conflict with the Labour leadership. As of today (31 March 2026), he has had the Labour whip suspended after repeated public criticism of Starmer’s
Opinium
The latest Opinium poll is the first poll in 3 weeks to show Reform back at or above 30%. Most recent polls show that voter intentions in favour of Reform peaked in November and have been in a slow decline since the beginning of the year, currently translating on our
projections
As we work on updating the database, dealing with edge cases and debugging the algorithm's outputs we're are now confident that our two basic models are working as expected. At this stage of the election cycle we are running two models - a conventional uniform national
Redfield & Wilton
As expected, the first poll that indicates that Reform is ahead of the Conservatives came last week, with YouGov placing Reform one point ahead of the Tories. Scarlett Maguire, Director of JL Partners, says 'It is an outlier, however, and the majority of polls, including ours, continue to place
Savanta
Nigel Farage has written to the head of the British Polling Council claiming some leading pollsters are effectively suppressing Reform UK in their surveys. While some pollsters are recording Reform as high as 18%, neck and neck with the Tories’ support, others see Reform UK much further behind at around
Reform UK
Ipsos' monthly pulse is out and it reinforces just how disenchanted the electorate are with politics and politicians in general. Leading Tories and Rishi Sunak in particular are all in double-digit negativity territory with voters. PM Rishi Sunak is held in lower esteem by the voters than than even
YouGov
In the Canadian general election of 1993, support for the governing Progressive Conservative Party collapsed, and the party's representation in the Ottawa House of Commons dropped from an absolute majority of seats to only two. Meanwhile, the Reform Party took Western Canada and became the dominant conservative party
Conservative Party
Above is the UK Polling Report default forecast predicting Ashfield to go Labour with a comfortable double digit margin. Ashfield was in 2019 an unusual seat as the result below shows: "Other" was the Ashfield Independent Jason Zadrozny, who is expected to run again and has high name
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