Reform UK - UK Polling Report

Reform UK

Should Karl Turner Defect to Reform?

Karl Turner, the long-serving Labour MP for Kingston upon Hull East (first elected in 2010 and a local born-and-bred Hull man), is already in open conflict with the Labour leadership. As of today (31 March 2026), he has had the Labour whip suspended after repeated public criticism of Starmer’s

Opinium

Has Reform Peaked Too Early?

The latest Opinium poll is the first poll in 3 weeks to show Reform back at or above 30%. Most recent polls show that voter intentions in favour of Reform peaked in November and have been in a slow decline since the beginning of the year, currently translating on our

projections

National Projections Show Reform Would Fall Short of a Majority

As we work on updating the database, dealing with edge cases and debugging the algorithm's outputs we're are now confident that our two basic models are working as expected. At this stage of the election cycle we are running two models - a conventional uniform national

Redfield & Wilton

Have Reform Really Overtaken the Conservatives?

As expected, the first poll that indicates that Reform is ahead of the Conservatives came last week, with YouGov placing Reform one point ahead of the Tories. Scarlett Maguire, Director of JL Partners, says 'It is an outlier, however, and the majority of polls, including ours, continue to place

Reform UK

Farage Rages as Savanta Defend Not Prompting for Reform

Nigel Farage has written to the head of the British Polling Council claiming some leading pollsters are effectively suppressing Reform UK in their surveys. While some pollsters are recording Reform as high as 18%, neck and neck with the Tories’ support, others see Reform UK much further behind at around

Favourability

All Leading Politicians and Parties are Viewed Unfavourably By Voters

Ipsos' monthly pulse is out and it reinforces just how disenchanted the electorate are with politics and politicians in general. Leading Tories and Rishi Sunak in particular are all in double-digit negativity territory with voters. PM Rishi Sunak is held in lower esteem by the voters than than even

YouGov

Forget 1997, the Next General Election Could Be Canada 1993

In the Canadian general election of 1993, support for the governing Progressive Conservative Party collapsed, and the party's representation in the Ottawa House of Commons dropped from an absolute majority of seats to only two. Meanwhile, the Reform Party took Western Canada and became the dominant conservative party

Conservative Party

Is Lee Anderson Actually Better Off in Ashfield Not Running as a Tory?

Above is the UK Polling Report default forecast predicting Ashfield to go Labour with a comfortable double digit margin. Ashfield was in 2019 an unusual seat as the result below shows: "Other" was the Ashfield Independent Jason Zadrozny, who is expected to run again and has high name

Opinium

Are Reform Really on 9% When Voters Don't Know What They Stand For?

Close followers of polling, or readers of this site, may well have spotted that Reform UK seem to be in something of a renaissance. The party has maintained a strong performance, reaching near double digits, all without the much-prophesied return of their totemic leader. And yet there are reasons to