Is Lee Anderson Actually Better Off in Ashfield Not Running as a Tory?
Above is the UK Polling Report default forecast predicting Ashfield to go Labour with a comfortable double digit margin. Ashfield was in 2019 an unusual seat as the result below shows:
"Other" was the Ashfield Independent Jason Zadrozny, who is expected to run again and has high name recognition as the Leader of Ashfield District Council. It is not unreasonable to think he will put in a strong performance and that the model forecast is out of wack because the algorithm doesn't deal with non-national parties at all well. So that being said it also means the Labour lead in reality is unlikely to match the 20 points plus currently being seen in national polls.
Lee Anderson's refusal to apologise over comments he made about Sadiq Khan was the reason he had the Tory whip removed. He was given an ultimatum that either he apologised to London Mayor or face losing the whip. He chose to lose the whip and is now officially an independent MP. Has he shrewdly calculated that without the liability of a blue rosette he might actually do better? Ashfield has an independents led council and is used to voting for independents. This is a tough seat to call and the broad forces that will shape the national general election result do not necessarily apply in Ashfield. Lee might yet have the last laugh.
