Forget 1997, the Next General Election Could Be Canada 1993

In the Canadian general election of 1993, support for the governing Progressive Conservative Party collapsed, and the party's representation in the Ottawa House of Commons dropped from an absolute majority of seats to only two. Meanwhile, the Reform Party took Western Canada and became the dominant conservative party in Canada. The split on the right was accentuated by Canada's single member plurality electoral system, which resulted in numerous seats being won by the Liberal Party, even when the total number of votes cast for Progressive Conservative and Reform Parties were substantially in excess of the total number of votes cast for the Liberal candidates. Today's poll showing only a 4 point gap between the Tories and Reform could precede such a tipping point.

Far fetched? That's what the Liberal Democrats thought in 2015 when they lost 86% of their seats. The British electoral system is not dissimilar to the Canadian system in that it can produce dramatic swings. If as rumours suggest the Reform UK party now has serious financial backing and it can get its ground game organised by October who knows what might happen - particularly if Nigel Farage returns to the fray.