Data Modelling Now Has Tories Winning More Seats Than Reform

Despite polls since the Clacton by-election giving Reform an average lead over the Conservatives of 5 percentage points our default model now shows that on current polling the Conservatives would win 27 seats more than Reform. Labour would win 274 seats, more than double the trailing Tories.

The heady days of last November when Reform were polling 11 points ahead of Labour, a double digit lead which would have translated into 340 seats, are long gone. Nigel Farage's personal ratings have plummeted and he has taken the party's polling down with him as much as Burnham has brought about his party's recovery.

Commentators speculating about Burnham calling a spring election are pointing to the obvious temptation for the government. Though on these numbers they would still have to be in coalition with the Liberal Democrats to form a majority government.