Reform Now Projected to Get Less Than 100 Seats

Based on current polling a traditional simple uniform swing projection gives Labour 285 seats, Reform 76 seats and the Conservatives almost double with 141 seats.

Labour pulled ahead of Reform in mid-July and are now projected to still be 40 seats short of a majority. The Tories crossed over and pulled ahead of Reform in mid-August. Out of the last 10 polls only 2 have had Reform ahead of the Tories. On the current trajectory if things don't change we expect to be projecting the Liberal Democrats winning more seats than Reform within the next month. Quite a swing from last year when Reform were projected to win an absolute majority based on the polling averages at the time.

First past the post is a punishing system which can tilt seat forecasts disproportionately to changes in national polling percentages.