Have Reform Really Overtaken the Conservatives?
As expected, the first poll that indicates that Reform is ahead of the Conservatives came last week, with YouGov placing Reform one point ahead of the Tories. Scarlett Maguire, Director of JL Partners, says 'It is an outlier, however, and the majority of polls, including ours, continue to place the Conservatives significantly ahead of Reform.
Are Reform really ahead of the Conservatives? According to JL Partners the answer is probably not. They also think that Labour is possibly losing votes to Reform and the Greens are almost certainly losing votes to Reform.
The long anticipated “crossover poll” came in the form of a YouGov poll that has Reform on 19% ahead of the Conservatives. It is at the moment an outlier and it looks, again according to Scarlett Maguire, “like for once, the hair-on-fire excitement it has generated is not simply a result of being the latest poll. It seems YouGov are genuinely seeing things not reflected in other samples”.
Four other polls in the following days showed the Conservatives ahead of Reform, Redfield and Wilton having them at 17% just one point behind the Conservatives. As UK Polling Report's rolling average shows, Reform are still lagging the Conservatives:
There is a suspicion that YouGov's change in methodology might be benefiting Reform, as they have changed over to MRP modelling all results. But previous modelling figures are even more clear cut and have suggested a complete wipe out for the Conservative Party at Westminster – Labour: 40% Reform: 18% Con: 15% LD: 14% Green: 7%. There is a sizable disagreement on the width of the Conservative-Reform gap. YouGov and Redfield and Wilton have this slight gap at just 1 percentage point; however, other pollsters believe the margin to be significantly wider. Including JLP at 9 points and Survation at 11. While it is likely that other polls will show Reform ahead, a crossover in the averages is far less likely, but not impossible.
This is another blow to Conservative MPs trying to hang onto their seats in the Shires, South Coast and South West. Nigel Farage is Reform's candidate in Clacton, pollsters believe it will be an almost certain win for Farage.
