The Multilevel Regression with Post-stratification (MRP) model is nowadays seen as the gold standard method in modern political forecasting. It typically uses large national samples, analysing data on a constituency-by-constituency basis, the MRP poll predicts specific electoral seat outcomes, indicating which candidates are likely to win or lose. It can
Reform UK
As expected, the first poll that indicates that Reform is ahead of the Conservatives came last week, with YouGov placing Reform one point ahead of the Tories. Scarlett Maguire, Director of JL Partners, says 'It is an outlier, however, and the majority of polls, including ours, continue to place
Expert Panel
UK Polling Report is creating an expert panel to generate new insights about this election - and after. Please take our first short survey and be part of it! You will then get the results before everyone else and can help set questions in the future.
Algorithm
Just in time for the election we have overhauled our algorithm to fix the main complaint of followers. The algorithm hitherto applied national polling results to Scotland, this dramatically underestimated changes in support for parties in Scotland. We now apply much greater weight to Scotland specific polling versus national polling.
As the relaunched UK Polling Report approaches its first anniversary, we're looking to make some changes to the site in preparation for next year's general election. First of all, we need to prepare for the new electoral boundaries, adapting our database and re-engineering our models and
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