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Labour Lead Frozen in Place Despite Conservative Fluctuations

Labour Lead Frozen in Place Despite Conservative Fluctuations

As Friday saw a flurry of polls released, some more sensational than others, it's worth taking stock of the state of party polling in the long-term. Despite a general narrative of a steady Conservative recovery, buoyed by Conservative over-interpretations of Savanta's latest result, polling numbers have

By Callum Jones 12 Dec 2022
First Past the Post Doesn't Just Cause "Progressive Tragedies"

First Past the Post Doesn't Just Cause "Progressive Tragedies"

Electoral campaign group Win as One have set out their stall in The Guardian ahead of an official launch on Monday. The group hopes to co-ordinate progressive voters and candidates to secure a Labour-led government at the next election. They argue that Labour's lead is undermined by institutional

By Callum Jones 09 Dec 2022
Public Wants More Climate Action, They Just Don't Want to Pay for it

Environment

Public Wants More Climate Action, They Just Don't Want to Pay for it

As John Kerry is set to deliver the 2022 Fullbright Lecture, Ipsos MORI has conducted polling to mark the event. Researchers lead with the finding that both the UK and US publics think the costs of climate change will outweigh the costs of dealing with it, however there is a

By Callum Jones 09 Dec 2022
Reason to Doubt Stephen Flynn's Pro-Independence Polling

Scotland

Reason to Doubt Stephen Flynn's Pro-Independence Polling

At PMQs yesterday the newly elected SNP Leader in Westminster, Stephen Flynn, was buoyed by news of a poll showing "Scottish independence has now hit 56% and support for the Scottish National party sits north of 50%". The poll in question came from Ipsos MORI, and you can

By Callum Jones 08 Dec 2022
Majority of Voters Still View the Conservative Party Unfavourably

Favourability

Majority of Voters Still View the Conservative Party Unfavourably

Ipsos MORI have published their Political Pulse report for November. The headline finding is that a majority of voters still disapprove of the Conservative Party, with the figure now at 52%. Perhaps more strikingly, though, is the number with a favourable view: just 20% view the party positively – less than

By Callum Jones 07 Dec 2022
Public Broadly Support Right to Strike, Just Not Over Christmas

Public Broadly Support Right to Strike, Just Not Over Christmas

Recent polling has produced a somewhat messy picture on public support for striking industries. Two surveys published over recent days, by Redfield & Wilton and Opinium, find voters are more likely to endorse the right to strike than not across industries. Although the respondents in the latter poll were more

By Callum Jones 07 Dec 2022
Labour has Diagnosed a Problem, Have They Found the Right Solution?

Labour has Diagnosed a Problem, Have They Found the Right Solution?

Reading through Labour's report by their Commission on the UK's Future, one message stands out from their polling. There is overwhelming pessimism and dissatisfaction in Britain's institutions and prospects. Luckily for us, the party has identified a solution in the form of a sweeping

By Callum Jones 06 Dec 2022
The Conservatives are Fighting a Losing Battle on Private School Tax Exemptions

The Conservatives are Fighting a Losing Battle on Private School Tax Exemptions

Private school funding is back on the political agenda. As Labour outlined plans to scrap their favourable tax status, Conservatives have rushed to the defence of private schools. All the while jeered on by media headlines of "class warfare". The issue for those supporting the Conservatives, is that

By Callum Jones 02 Dec 2022
Lessons From City of Chester By-Election

Lessons From City of Chester By-Election

As the City of Chester result is dissected by pundits and punters alike, one thing is clear: nobody's surprised. Labour won on a solid margin, the swing was, broadly, in line with the national expectation and turnout was low - it came in at 41.2%. In the

By Callum Jones 02 Dec 2022
City of Chester By-Election Preview

City of Chester By-Election Preview

Voters in the City of Chester head to the polls today, as the constituency faces a by-election following former MP Chris Matheson's resignation. The seat currently holds an 11% majority for Labour and on national polling, that's obviously only expected to increase. With this in mind,

By Callum Jones 01 Dec 2022
Why the Liberal Democrats Might Be Content to Lose Support

Why the Liberal Democrats Might Be Content to Lose Support

In the midst of a volatile polling landscape, one trend has flown somewhat under the radar. Despite the Conservatives' plummeting popularity, one expected beneficiary has been struggling to make headway as Liberal Democrat numbers have entered a steady decline. This is apparent if their various vote share results are

By Callum Jones 30 Nov 2022
Why Our Predictions Come Unstuck in Scotland

Scotland

Why Our Predictions Come Unstuck in Scotland

There have been some valid criticisms on Twitter raised of a number of our seat predictions in Scotland. These point to shortcomings in our model that we're certainly looking to address. As a newly relaunched site, still in beta as it says on the masthead at the top,

By Callum Jones 29 Nov 2022
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