Public Broadly Support Right to Strike, Just Not Over Christmas
Recent polling has produced a somewhat messy picture on public support for striking industries. Two surveys published over recent days, by Redfield & Wilton and Opinium, find voters are more likely to endorse the right to strike than not across industries. Although the respondents in the latter poll were more reluctant to endorse police strikes.
Both surveys find very similar levels of support, yet they do diverge on the rate of opposition; Opinium puts the level of those saying workers shouldn't be able to strike closer to those saying they should. This can be explained by the surveys' structures.
Redfield & Wilton provides the option for selecting "Neither support nor oppose", whilst Opinium has no similar neutral stance. Around 20% of Redfield's responses opted to remain neutral in each question, in addition to the relatively small number of "don't know" responses (relative to the Opinium poll). It is likely that the "Neither support nor oppose" response drew disproportionate support from those who, if denied the choice, might come down against strikes as Conservative voters were overrepresented amongst the group.
The picture is clouded further when YouGov's polling on the topic is included. In two separate polls, the company finds more opposition to rail strikes than support. This could be explained by the fact that YouGov mentions planned strikes individually before asking for support. In this vein, it is perhaps unsurprising that opposition grows when voters are prompted for recently announced Christmas strikes.
The public's broad support for strikes could pose problems for the government as they become more disruptive in the coming weeks. Even amongst those currently intending to vote Conservative, 17% say the government is mostly responsible for nurses' strikes. Overall, this number is 42% for nurses' strikes according to Opinium, and and 31% for rail strikes according to Redfield & Wilton. Whilst the government bears the brunt of the blame in the above instances, Opinium does find that unions are most blamed for rail strikes. The fact the government is either first or second in who voters hold to account would seem to undermine the reported intention of the Conservatives to tie Labour to striking unions.
Although the broad picture is unclear, there are some more focussed lessons to take. Strike opinion is, unsurprisingly, split by party affiliation. Whilst there seems to be plurality – near majority – support for the right to strike more generally, that support weakens when specific strikes are prompted. Moreover, striking rail workers appear to have less public sympathy than healthcare workers. Support for rail strikes drops further when Christmas disruption is highlighted specifically.
