YouGov Also Finds Pro-Independence Support Rising
YouGov have today released a new poll with The Times, which sheds more light on Scottish public opinion. The headline result is a 5% margin, with Yes on 47% to the 42% of No. This marks a significant pro-independence shift on polling from previous months. Interestingly, it finds that the SNP's Westminster vote share is not seeing a corresponding boost.
Whilst the pollster is yet to release tables, it is now the fourth independence poll since both the Supreme Court's decision showing support for independence, so there does seem to be a somewhat clearer picture forming. YouGov, Ipsos and Find Out Now all put No support around 42%, with Redfield saying 45%. There is greater variance amongst estimates of Yes support, ranging from YouGov's 47% to 53% from Ipsos MORI.
Ipsos MORI produces the largest margin for independence, outside what could simply be explained by standard margins of error, though this can be accounted for by their methodology. Ipsos doesn't weight for past vote, and so can be prone to large swings between polls due to unrepresentative samples. As readers may be aware, the poll does have a sample that seems to be considerably more in favour of independence even than their own previous polling.
The Find Out Now poll, conducted with Electoral Calculus, also gives an above average estimate of Yes support, at 51%. Whilst Find Out Now doesn't always weight for past vote intention, in this case Electoral Calculus say they have; so it can't be solely attributed to this. Though without full table and methodology it's difficult to drill down too much more.
Taking this into consideration, it seems reasonable that Yes support might be around the 49% mark, towards the upper end of those that do weight by past vote, with No closer to 43%. This marks a significant shift on the polling prior to the resignation of Liz Truss and the Supreme Court's decision, though due to the infrequent nature of releases it's difficult to attribute to either one in particular. Whilst this now seems somewhat settled, it is still worth keeping an eye open to developments on the more divergent picture of Scottish Westminster voting intention.
