Labour Lead Frozen in Place Despite Conservative Fluctuations
As Friday saw a flurry of polls released, some more sensational than others, it's worth taking stock of the state of party polling in the long-term. Despite a general narrative of a steady Conservative recovery, buoyed by Conservative over-interpretations of Savanta's latest result, polling numbers have remained consistent. This is borne out in our own polling average, which has remained steady over the past month. Although Labour's figure has declined marginally, by around 1%, the Conservative number is broadly unmoved.
Where recent polling has introduced some doubt is over the Conservatives. Of polls conducted at the end of last week alone, this ranges between 20% from People Polling and 30% from Omnisis. Clearly looking closer into this could reveal a great deal about the state of Labour's lead. Especially as Labour's figures have been consistent, with the vast majority of recent polls putting them at 47-48%.
People Polling has given Reform some of their highest vote shares, so it is possible it is underestimating the Conservatives at their expense. Meanwhile Omnisis' 30% marked a 5% jump on their last poll, seemingly accounted for by 2019 Conservatives returning to the party from the "don't know" column.
Savanta's latest poll joins Omnisis in providing a positive estimate of Conservative vote share. Their recent poll gave Labour a lead of 11% which, as a sign of the times, is somewhat meagre. This also showed a rise in previously undecided 2019ers coming back into the Conservative fray, so this is certainly something to look out for. Though again, as Savanta's Chris Hopkins pointed out in the press release: "it's just one poll, we'd need to see more polls move in similar directions before claiming that this is a trend, and it could very much be an outlier."
The importance of previously undecided Conservative 2019 voters as determinants of these results seems to hint at the cause of volatility in Conservative numbers. The fact there is such a high share of undecided Conservative-inclined voters, around 23% according YouGov and 26% to People Polling, would suggest their level of support might be subject to more fluctuation. These voters are certainly a group to watch over the coming months.
