Electoral Calculus
With Local Elections less than 24 hours away, the main party machines have been out in force setting expectations for Thursday's poll. Greg Hands was keen to set expectations low - he warned of Conservative losses around the 1,000-seat mark. Meanwhile, Keir Starmer did the same for
YouGov
New Favourability polling from YouGov is looking promising for Rishi Sunak. He's seen his net favourability climb by 13% in under a month (since February 19). Rishi's favourable ratings are sat on 34% as 55% hold an unfavourable view - leaving net favourability on -21%. Although
Brexit
The government's new "Windsor Framework" Northern Ireland deal has been met with fanfare from across the political divide. The deal seems to mark an improvement on the status quo, a success of the government’s negotiation, strategy and delivery and improved EU relations have the potential
Scotland
A new poll from the Scottish Election Study and YouGov has been released today, suggesting a striking shift in Scottish voting intention. It puts the SNP on 38% (-4) to Labour's 35% (+7) - a significant 5.5 point swing to Labour from the SNP. Naturally, this would
YouGov
As the week comes to an end, Labour's poll lead seems to be holding steady, if not increasing. Only Deltapoll has the Conservatives making gains - of 2% on their last poll. Looking at where each pollster now puts 2019 Conservatives can provide more context to this. Most
Ipsos MORI
With strikes and an acute winter health crisis, the NHS has dominated media attention over the past month. It therefore comes as little surprise to see the issue climb the ranks of various salience trackers, with Ipsos MORI's issues index today and Redfield & Wilton's poll
Opinium
As the government is embroiled in a fresh batch of sleaze allegations, Rishi Sunak won't be able to take any comfort from the polling. Since becoming Prime Minister, his personal approvals have been on a consistent decline; this is replicated across pollsters, though Redfield & Wilton's
Guest Post
With inflation shooting up over the course of 2022 – reaching as high as 11.1% in October – many Britons are feeling the pinch in their pay packets. So too will businesses, as cost of living pay increases will need to be higher in order to prevent employees receiving a real-terms
YouGov
A little harsh and unforgiving. Does this just reflect his personal approval rating? That the majority of Conservatives want him investigated too, suggests the libertarian element in the party is weak.
YouGov
Whilst Labour rides high in the polls, evidence has come to light which might suggest their lead is more fragile than it initially appears. The Times has released polling conducted with YouGov, which gauges voter sentiment towards a potential election win for each party. It adds to prior evidence that,
YouGov
Today, three more pollsters have released their first results of 2023 and together with Redfield & Wilton's result from earlier this week there is a surprising degree of convergence. Three of the four put Labour on 46%, with Redfield & Wilton saying 47%. The Conservative estimates converge on
Savanta
Savanta have recently published the results of an MRP poll conducted alongside Electoral Calculus and it makes gripping reading. The poll gives Labour 482 seats to the Conservatives' 69. That's a majority of 314. Amongst the headline findings are a Conservative wipe-out North of Lincolnshire. Naturally the
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