Starmer Fails to Delight as Conservatives Cause Dismay
Whilst Labour rides high in the polls, evidence has come to light which might suggest their lead is more fragile than it initially appears. The Times has released polling conducted with YouGov, which gauges voter sentiment towards a potential election win for each party. It adds to prior evidence that, despite his party's 20% lead, voters aren't quite enthused by Starmer.
22% of voters respond that they would be "delighted" with a Labour victory. Lower than 31% in 2017 and even their 26% 2019 showing, measured right before the party's landslide defeat. The polling suggests the party is far less polarising than under Corbyn. The share of those saying they "wouldn't mind" a Labour victory doubled on Corbyn's average, whilst the share saying they would be "dismayed" has dropped by 15% since 2019.
There are a number of ways Labour HQ might interpret these figures. On one hand, the lack of enthusiasm might be a concern - the data does suggest Corbyn was more successful at engaging his wing of the electorate. Equally, they might be content to be seen as a more palatable and sensible alternative, far less disliked by voters.
The figures are worth a couple of caveats. Firstly, Labour is now seen as more likely to win than in 2017 and 2019, with polls consistently showing they're favourites for government. The fact a Labour victory is now more expected might dampen their voters' delight at such a result. Moreover, the data from 2017 and 2019 was measured right before respective election days, just as political attention would have peaked. It's likely this might have magnified emotional responses for each party.
Whilst the polling paints a mixed picture of Labour's fortunes, the Conservatives' would be grateful even for that.
Just 8% of voters would be "delighted" by their victory, whilst those who would be "dismayed" rose from 42% in 2019 to 48%. The number saying they "wouldn't mind" a Conservative win has increased, though not by enough to compensate for the decline amongst enthusiastic supporters. Whilst it, again, is worth noting that an election is further off now than when the question was posed in 2017 and 2019, the poll still only adds to the overwhelming weight of evidence that the Conservative Party brand remains in a poor state.
