The Steady Decline of Sunak's Personal Approvals
As the government is embroiled in a fresh batch of sleaze allegations, Rishi Sunak won't be able to take any comfort from the polling. Since becoming Prime Minister, his personal approvals have been on a consistent decline; this is replicated across pollsters, though Redfield & Wilton's results from yesterday are most stark.
The pollster puts the total decline in net approval at 25%, from +10% in October to -15% yesterday, very similar to the 22% drop from Opinium. Rishi's YouGov approval started at a lower base, -19% in November, and has fallen by 10% as of January 18th.
The figures don't look quite as bad for the Prime Minister under closer examination. A large portion of the drop, at least going by Redfield & Wilton's numbers, comes from the hardening of the attitudes of opposition party voters. In October, Rishi had net approvals of -5% amongst 2019 Labour voters and +24% with Liberal Democrats. This is now -41% for Labour and -27% for the Liberal Democrats. Conservative approval has also held up somewhat well, with 42% now approving compared to 44% in late October.
Rishi's previously high approvals were, at least somewhat, dependent on some cross-party approval. As this has declined, his numbers are now coming more in line with his party. Opposition voters would be unlikely to vote Conservative, even if they held Sunak in high esteem, so this ought not be of too much concern.
What should worry CCHQ is the hardening of 2019 Conservatives who disapprove of the Prime Minister. Although the "approve" bloc has held steady, the numbers of those disapproving have increased significantly – by 17%. This polarisation seems predominantly driven by voters who had previously been undecided, now making up their minds against Rishi Sunak.
Elsewhere, Redfield's poll doesn't look good for Rishi. Keir Starmer took a lead over Sunak on every positive characteristic, bar over personal health on which they were tied. Starmer also took a 5% lead over Sunak on the all important question of who "would be the better Prime Minister", even despite the relative incumbency advantage afforded by Redfield's wording.
The state of Rishi's personal approvals, whilst growth in his party's support seems to have stalled, doesn't bode well for the Conservatives. As controversy and crises continue to dominate the news cycle, and a new leader doesn't seem to have changed much, it's difficult to see how the party can start to turn things around. On an unrelated note, local elections are in 100 days.
