Could Rishi's Northern Ireland Deal Help His Poll Ratings?
The government's new "Windsor Framework" Northern Ireland deal has been met with fanfare from across the political divide. The deal seems to mark an improvement on the status quo, a success of the government’s negotiation, strategy and delivery and improved EU relations have the potential to help the government's agenda in a range of areas. The question is, will this apparent success filter through to the Conservative party's poll ratings?
Some polling might suggest an improvement from this is plausible. Even now, seven years after the Brexit referendum, Britain leaving the EU is still a salient issue to voters. YouGov's issues tracker currently has it in fifth place. So, some positive reaction could well cut through.
That being said, snap polling from YouGov on the deal specifically can cast doubt on this. 28% of the public say they're following the story closely, 28% say they're following it, though not very closely, as another 44% aren't following the story at all.
Moreover, even though Brexit is salient, the NHS and the economy are far more pertinent in voters' minds. This is even more true of the economy, as the salience of healthcare seems to have declined in recent weeks. Although Rishi's deal, and the positive noise around it, might help his ratings - it certainly can't hurt - it seems unlikely it will lead to a full-scale Conservative revival without the perception of action on the economy.
