Conservatives Lose Half of 2019 Voters, Most Lost Voters Now "Don't Know"
As the week comes to an end, Labour's poll lead seems to be holding steady, if not increasing. Only Deltapoll has the Conservatives making gains - of 2% on their last poll. Looking at where each pollster now puts 2019 Conservatives can provide more context to this.
Most estimate the Conservatives are retaining around half of their voters, with PeoplePolling proving the notable exception on 39%. The main difference is accounted for by the share of "Don't know" responses, which they put far higher - at 33% whilst others say it's between 18 and 26%. This should help contextualise the above average Labour leads given by PeoplePolling - the concurrently high share of now undecided Conservatives indicates the larger lead is somewhat softer.
All four of the above pollsters see Labour gaining more 2019 Conservatives than Reform UK, with Labour estimates ranging from 13-16% and those lost to Reform from 7-11%. With the exception of PeoplePolling's undecideds, it's fairly consistent.
Due to the presentation of Deltapoll's tables - by default they exclude "Don't know" responses - their results are not directly comparable with other pollsters. Though, their data does allow for 2019 Conservatives to be broken down by Leave and Remain vote (with the obvious caveat that subsamples are pretty small).
The pollster estimates the Conservatives are retaining more of their voters than others do - providing one explanation for Deltapoll's below average Labour leads. Unsurprisingly, they have Labour gaining (proportionally) more votes from Remain-voting Conservatives, as Reform/UKIP almost exclusively draw from Leavers. Sunak's Conservatives are doing better at retaining remain-supporting voters rather than leavers - which might lend some credence to Labour's strategy of keeping Brexit out of political contestation.
Broadly speaking, this leaves Labour's lead in a decent place. The Conservatives seem to have expended most of the capital from their new leader, as his approval ratings have begun to sink, they're embroiled in continuing sleaze allegations and show little sign of mounting a resurgence - so far. The newfound predominance of health on the political agenda only makes the Conservatives' comeback prospects the more challenging.
