Coalition
In the wake of the Local Elections, national discussion has been refocused on potential coalitions in the supposedly now likely event of a hung parliament - with Keir Starmer receiving media scrutiny for his failure to rule out a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. However, new polling from Opinium reveals
Electoral Calculus
We now have a full set of results from Thursday's local elections, and a good night for the opposition parties, particularly the Liberal Democrats, saw the Conservatives losing 1,063 seats, whilst Labour gained 536, the Lib Dems 407 and the Greens 241. Meanwhile, the BBC's
Omnisis
With Local Elections less than 24 hours away, the main party machines have been out in force setting expectations for Thursday's poll. Greg Hands was keen to set expectations low - he warned of Conservative losses around the 1,000-seat mark. Meanwhile, Keir Starmer did the same for
According to our polling average, Labour's lead is now sat at 15.7% - that's a decline of just over 1% since mid-April, when I last covered the party's diminishing advantage. One positive development for Keir Starmer is that this decline does seem to
Strikes
New polling from YouGov suggests that, although the British public broadly supports strike action, this is often determined by the specific context of strikes. In particular, voters are more inclined to support strikes from healthcare workers and teachers. Nurses have the highest level of net support, at 41%, whilst University
Labour Party
As the end of parliamentary recess approaches, Rishi Sunak's administration has been enjoying a media positive narrative. Although they are still behind in the polls by a large double- digit margin, there is evidence to support a slight boon in the government's fortunes. In March, there
Lord Ashcroft
Over the Easter weekend, Labour's latest political campaign - an attack ad targeting Rishi Sunak's over paedophiles not being imprisoned - dominated political conversations. Despite public criticism from former Labour big beasts, and reports of internal divisions, Labour is continuing to brief the press on their
Labour Party
Labour Together punctuated the news cycle over the weekend with some insightful research, presenting one model of voter segmentation. They categorised the electorate into six broad groups: 1. Activist Left - Making up 18.3% of the electorate, this socially liberal group of predominantly younger voters are intent on backing
Ipsos MORI
Rishi Sunak's personal ratings have shown signs of recovery after a solid month for the Prime Minister. Ipsos MORI's latest release shows his personal approvals are up 5% on February - with net satisfaction rising by 10%. Keir Starmer sees a comparable downturn - his satisfaction
With some minor movement in the polls over the past weeks, it's worth taking stock of the potential electoral implications of present public opinion. Our average currently has Labour leading by 17.7%, based on our Uniform National Swing (UNS) model this would see them win the next
Ipsos MORI
Ipsos' latest Political Pulse has been released and, like most polling of the past six months, continues to suggest that the Conservative Party is broadly disliked - even though Rishi himself is somewhat more popular. Some Conservative Party figures have made modest gains in favourability over the past month.
FindOutNow
Polling Twitter has been awash with discussion of one poll, from PeoplePolling, which put the Green party on 13%. Based on the weight of evidence, we can be confident this finding isn't accurate. Polling averages, ours included, put the party on less than half the figure, other pollsters&
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