Six Cabinet Ministers We Think Could Lose Their Seats on Current Polls
With some minor movement in the polls over the past weeks, it's worth taking stock of the potential electoral implications of present public opinion. Our average currently has Labour leading by 17.7%, based on our Uniform National Swing (UNS) model this would see them win the next election on 352 seats, a solid outright majority, gaining 150 seats in the process - predominantly at the expense of the Conservatives.
This would obviously leave a lot of Tories looking for jobs - and members of the Cabinet are not immune. On current national trends, six cabinet ministers could lose their seats. These would be Party Chairman Greg Hands, Chief Whip Simon Hart, Attorney General Victoria Prentis, Energy Security Secretary Grant Shapps, Welsh Secretary David Davies and Deputy PM Dominic Raab.
Our model does also predict that Scotland Secretary Alister Jack would lose his seat. This seems somewhat less likely, due to the fact we rely on uniform national swing - which (on current polling) underserves the Conservatives' position in Scotland. Whilst it does also (at the moment) overstate the SNP position - the present CON-SNP swing looks insufficient to overturn Jack's 4% majority, at least based on our methodology.
Some of the above are in more perilous positions than others. Dominic Raab looks set to lose his seat on the largest margin - 8.7%, whilst Victoria Prentis and Greg Hands are the closest to keeping theirs - they're just 2% behind.
One important consideration to bear in mind is tactical voting, which our model doesn't currently account for. The strong third-party presence in the seats of Greg Hands and Dominic Raab makes their positions more perilous. Greg Hands the Conservative Party chairman is a campaigner and will presumably have all the resources possible available to his campaign.
These are not the only Cabinet ministers imperilled by current polling. Our model has previously predicted that Jeremy Hunt and Johnny Mercer would lose their seats - only the modest Conservative gains of the past few weeks see them hanging on. On current national polling Mercer would be sitting on a majority of 0.5% and Jeremy Hunt on 1.6%. Though the Chancellor's position is somewhat worse than the final figure suggests. As previously covered, Labour's high vote share leaves his seat vulnerable if they can co-ordinate with the Liberal Democrats.
We don't factor in an incumbency effect - thought to be worth on average 2%, nor a celebrity effect where they have high name recognition - a significant factor perhaps for the likes of Boris Johnson.
