Why Labour Shouldn't Pin Their Hopes on 'Stevenage Woman'

Labour Together punctuated the news cycle over the weekend with some insightful research, presenting one model of voter segmentation. They categorised the electorate into six broad groups:

1. Activist Left - Making up 18.3% of the electorate, this socially liberal group of predominantly younger voters are intent on backing Labour.
2. Centrist Liberals - Comprising 16.5% of the country, these voters are evenly spread across age and geography, often university educated and socially liberal. In 2019 they split evenly between Conservatives and Labour, with a solid Liberal Democrat representation. Now, they're more firmly behind Labour.
3. Disillusioned Suburbans - Accounting for 21.8% of the population, they are often economically insecure. Women and ethnic minority voters are over-represented in this group - who are left-of-centre economically and somewhat socially conservative.
4. Patriotic Left - Representing 15% of the electorate, the partriotic left is concentrated in the 'red wall'. They are economically left-leaning and socially conservative. They are back with the party, having abandoned Labour in 2019.
5. English Traditionalists - Are the oldest group, unlikely to have a university degree they make up 17.8% of voters. They are staunch on social issues and economically centrist - strong supporters of the Conservatives.
6. Rural Right - 10.6% of the population, they are older retired rural voters. The strongest Conservative supporters.

The report concludes that the key groups to determine the next election will be the patriotic left - who we already know as 'Workington man' - and the disillusioned suburbans, similarly dubbed 'Stevenage woman'. Labour is currently in a strong position with both, although the authors urge caution - pointing to the volatility of the electorate.

They are certainly right to highlight electoral volatility. This has permeated British electoral politics since 2015 and will likely continue to play a role. The new-found emphasis on "Stevenage woman" - although not unimportant - is hardly groundbreaking.

Whilst voter segmentation can have value - perhaps in personifying a political challenge or spelling out the obvious to strategists - it can likewise be reductive. This is true of 'Stevenage woman', which the report itself suggests is the largest segment of the population. 'Stevenage woman' is geographically spread out, her policy preferences are effectively aligned with Britain's median voter and of all the segments, their Westminster voting intention is closest to the national mean. Of course, the largest group of voters not committed to either party is going to be important to an election. Whether it will be the determinant of an election result - or if it should be the primary target of Labour's political attention - is another question entirely.

Taking a look at Labour's top target seats in the next election can provide further insight on this point. Listed below are the 124 marginal seats which would provide Labour the easiest route to a majority - represented as a proportion of seats in each parliamentary electoral region.

Contrary to what an expedited focus on 'Stevenage woman' might suggest - the key seats for the next election look to be in Scotland and Wales, as well as the North West, which are broadly the 'red wall' seats lost by Labour last time out. The regions most populated by 'Stevenage women' - the East of England, London suburbs and the North East - come somewhat lower. How Scottish Labour can maintain their newfound resurgence may well prove to be more important than however the party can appeal to any one electoral segment.

Labour Together has two main strategic recommendations - holding the line on cultural issues and presenting a platform for economic security. Whilst polling suggests the platform of providing economic security is viable - most voters consistently rank the economy as their top preference - this is less true of cultural issues. Whilst holding the line on cultural issues might help Labour with disillusioned suburbans and the patriotic left, it also risks alienating their activist base and centrist liberals - another important demographic still up for grabs.

The fact that the Labour Together's top two segments - the patriotic left and disillusioned suburbans - are also the most economically insecure, only highlights the added importance of economic issues ahead of the next election.