Labour's Poll Lead is Still Shrinking - Down 5% Since February

As the end of parliamentary recess approaches, Rishi Sunak's administration has been enjoying a media positive narrative. Although they are still behind in the polls by a large double- digit margin, there is evidence to support a slight boon in the government's fortunes. In March, there was early evidence that Labour's poll lead was beginning to reduce - this trend has only continued into April. By plotting every BPC accredited pollster's Labour lead over February and March, a continuing downward trend is evident.

This is further illustrated in our own polling average. In mid-February, our polling average put Labour at 21.9%. In mid-March, it was down to 20.2%. Now, it's sat on 16.8% and more recent results show some signs that this will reduce further. The most 10 recent polls average a Labour lead of 14.4%.

This slow decline might provide yet more context to Labour's decision to get on the offensive: Rishi Sunak's measured and uneventful style of governance seems to be helping the Conservatives' fortunes. Going by our average, Rishi's figures are now better than they have been at any point since he took over. This apparent shift is coming at a good time for the Prime Minister - local elections are three weeks away.