Voters in the City of Chester head to the polls today, as the constituency faces a by-election following former MP Chris Matheson's resignation. The seat currently holds an 11% majority for Labour and on national polling, that's obviously only expected to increase. With this in mind,
In the midst of a volatile polling landscape, one trend has flown somewhat under the radar. Despite the Conservatives' plummeting popularity, one expected beneficiary has been struggling to make headway as Liberal Democrat numbers have entered a steady decline. This is apparent if their various vote share results are
Scotland
There have been some valid criticisms on Twitter raised of a number of our seat predictions in Scotland. These point to shortcomings in our model that we're certainly looking to address. As a newly relaunched site, still in beta as it says on the masthead at the top,
Over the past few days there have been a flurry of Conservative MPs announcing their intention to stand down ahead of the next election. The Spectator's count has the current total of MPs standing down at 24, evenly split between Labour and the Conservatives. Though as James Heale
On Sunday, Lord Ashcroft published his aptly titled "They Think It's all Over" report and its headlines highlight what is clear to anybody who's read a poll over the past two months. The Conservative Party is struggling. The pollster surmised his report in the
Ipsos MORI have released polling on who the public back to take the crown in the latest series of I'm a Celebrity... and it looks like Matt Hancock is very much on borrowed time. He's ranked 4th out of the 5 remaining campmates, only beating out
Immigration
Ipsos MORI have released their issues index for November, with the headline finding that the main issues to Brits are economic. 45% of respondents rank the Economy as one the most important issue facing the country, with 45% also pointed to inflation specifically. This marks the second month in a
Nicola Sturgeon
The Supreme Court yesterday dealt Nicola Sturgeon's plans for a second independence referendum a significant blow by denying a right to indyref2 without Westminster consent. There are a number of reasons why the First Minister may not be so disappointed with the verdict. Firstly, despite her public plans,
Trust
Ipsos MORI have published their latest Veracity Index survey on public trust in various professions, and it doesn't reflect well on our elected officials. Trust in politicians has fallen by 7% since 2021, putting the proportion of respondents trusting them at 12%. This is the lowest figure on
Housing
As a backbench rebellion has forced the government to pull a vote on housing targets, the Conservative Party has found itself in a public debate over planning and broader strategy. Paul Goodman at ConservativeHome has written a good article on the party's dilemma. Recent polling from Ben W.
Psephology
Those of you who follow our Twitter (do give it a look), or have been making use of our constituency database, may well have noticed that our model is forecasting that Jeremy Hunt will lose his seat on current polling, albeit on the narrowest of margins. Considering he's
European Union
The confirmation that Britain is entering a recession has left experts and pundits scrambling to explain how we got here. One poll from YouGov has added fuel to the fire of one explanation, with the headline finding that 56% of voters think Britain was wrong to leave the European Union.
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