Will Jeremy Hunt Really Lose His Seat?
Those of you who follow our Twitter (do give it a look), or have been making use of our constituency database, may well have noticed that our model is forecasting that Jeremy Hunt will lose his seat on current polling, albeit on the narrowest of margins. Considering he's currently sitting on a majority of 9,000, it's certainly a bold prediction. So, will it actually happen?
Our model applies a uniform national swing, which will vary significantly by area, so it certainly shouldn't be taken as gospel. Redfield & Wilton's Blue Wall tracker, which includes South West Surrey, can perhaps allow for a more fine-tuned prediction. Although the results aren't too dissimilar from the national picture, when applied to South West Surrey, they actually end up worse for the Liberal Democrats.
Redfield's tracker sees the Lib Dems down 4.5% on 2019, compared to 2.7% nationally on recent polls. Whilst the 4.5% margin is actually a smaller proportion of Liberal Democrat support, relative to the national picture, on a uniform swing model the party comes out worse. Meanwhile, if a proportional swing model is applied, the Conservatives win the seat as applying Labour's gains to their relatively meagre 7.9% from 2019 leaves them with an insufficient total to win, whilst the Lib Dems also lose support on 2019.
The Liberal Democrats have selected the same candidate as last time round, so there is unlikely to be a change to the outcome on that basis. Meanwhile Jeremy Hunt does now have a more prominent position in government, as the increased status and name recognition could work in his favour.
The crucial shortcoming in our model, from the perspective of the opposition, is that it doesn't take into account tactical voting. Jeremy Hunt would be a major scalp for opposition supporters and there will naturally be incentive to coalesce around a single candidate. As has happened in recent by-elections. Whether or not this arrangement is formalised, as has been speculated, remains to be seen. However either way it's unlikely two opposition parties would allow the vote to be split so drastically.
Overall, with a 14.6% majority and a regional swing against the Conservatives of 17.7% the seat is absolutely vulnerable. The issue comes as the main challenger from 2019, the Liberal Democrats, are also losing out to Labour. Over at CCHQ Isaac Levido will no doubt want to focus campaign resources on high-profile candidates. Though it may well be out of his control. If the broader polling picture doesn't shift, the seat will likely come down to how well opposition parties can co-ordinate - formally or informally.
