City of Chester By-Election Preview
Voters in the City of Chester head to the polls today, as the constituency faces a by-election following former MP Chris Matheson's resignation. The seat currently holds an 11% majority for Labour and on national polling, that's obviously only expected to increase.
With this in mind, expectations are being set in the press. The Conservatives are hoping to maintain a base 20% vote share. Likewise, Labour would probably be content with a tally in the mid-sixties. These expectations, as they are based broadly on the national swing, of course match our own.
However, it's probably not worth placing too much weight on overall tallies. By-elections are often unique contests, with different electorates and perhaps a more local focus. This is borne out in Cheshire Live's coverage, in which "Sewage in the River Dee" and "Empty shops in the city centre" amongst voters' top concerns. To draw any sweeping conclusions for the national picture or the state of polling could be difficult. That being said, the outcome of the contest will no doubt help shape a political narrative, so it is worth watching.
Reform UK are standing a candidate and, considering recent talk of an ascendancy for the party, their result could be worth noting. As could the proportion of voters who back them relative to UKIP, who are also fielding a challenger. Though the turnout, likely to be very low, should surely caveat any dramatic conclusions.
The Labour candidate is Samantha Dixon, a local councillor who became the first woman to lead the council. Whilst the Conservative is Elizabeth Wardlaw, a nurse who also served as a councillor.
Historically, City of Chester had been a solid Conservative seat, getting more marginal over time and switching decisively in the 1997 landslide. The Tories won it in 2010, though it switched back to Labour on the finest of margins in 2015, helped by the collapse of the Liberal Democrat vote. Before Theresa May's fortunes changed it had been seen as a target in 2017. Now it looks as though it will come full circle as a safe Labour seat.
