By-Election
The eve-of-poll Opinium constituency poll makes it a three way race with the Greens winning within the margin of error. Which means no-one really knows until the votes are counted. This analysis last night from the Mail on Sunday's Dan Hodges covers all bases: We will know soon
By-Election
Full Fact reported last week that "an advert shared by the Labour Party features energy secretary Ed Miliband claiming that the “real polling” shows that the upcoming by-election in Gorton and Denton is a “fight between Labour and Reform”. It also includes a bar chart, which shows Reform UK
By-Election
Polling from YouGov, released today, shows the SNP extending their lead over Labour by 7 points to 11%. Although it will certainly be well received in SNP circles, for the moment it doesn't look like it will be enough to make them favourites in the upcoming Rutherglen and
By-Election
Keir Starmer was up in Scotland ahead of the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, and based on the most recent polling he has good reason to be confident of his chances. YouGov have just released a Scotland-specific poll giving Labour their highest Westminster vote share since the independence referendum -
By-Election
Today's the day when voters in three constituencies across the country go the polls to decide who replaces their previous Conservative incumbent. Although all seats previously had solid majorities, on current polling - and with a vastly unpopular incumbent government - the Conservatives will have a hard time
Tactical Voting
Since writing about by-election prospects in Mid Bedfordshire, readers will no doubt be aware that two further Tory MPs have announced their plan to stand down effective immediately. On top of Rutherglen and Hamilton West, it means four separate by-elections are now on the cards. Whilst Rutherglen looks to be
By-Election
Amidst speculation that Nadine Dorries' peerage would be delayed to prevent a by-election, the Mid Bedfordshire MP today made the surprise announcement that she was standing down anyway with immediate effect. This paves the way for a by-election in what would ordinarily look like a solid Tory seat. At
By-Election
A great night for Labour in the West Lancashire by-election without a doubt. Ashley Dalton held the seat with a Conservative to Labour swing of 10.5 points on a turnout of 31.3%. With the usual caveats about extrapolating from a single constituency result, what can we say? Labour
By-Election
As Stretford and Urmston declared in the early hours of the morning, Andrew Western is the Labour Party's newest MP. The final result saw Labour on 69.6% (+9.3) with the Conservatives sinking to 15.9% (-11.7). This showing was the worst for the party in
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