By-Election

"Worst Tory Result" in West Lancashire Was Actually Better Than Forecast

A great night for Labour in the West Lancashire by-election without a doubt. Ashley Dalton held the seat with a Conservative to Labour swing of 10.5 points on a turnout of 31.3%. With the usual caveats about extrapolating from a single constituency result, what can we say? Labour is keen to point out that they won a bigger vote share in this constituency than in Tony Blair's landslide general election victory in 1997.

The Tories can take some solace in that it wasn't as bad as forecast - below is our UK Polling Report prediction from yesterday based on the latest national polling data using a uniform swing model.

Compared to the dire (for the Tories) forecast, Labour underperformed the uniform swing model by 5 points and Mike Prendergast can claim to have outperformed by nearly 7 points. The Green Party will have to figure out why they did so badly compared to their national standing. UK Polling Report can be satisfied that we called the result and the order of the top three candidates accurately.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

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What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management