By-Elections Preview: Tories Set for Tough Night in Selby, Somerton and Uxbridge

Today's the day when voters in three constituencies across the country go the polls to decide who replaces their previous Conservative incumbent. Although all seats previously had solid majorities, on current polling - and with a vastly unpopular incumbent government - the Conservatives will have a hard time holding on to any of them. Even though polls have narrowed marginally in recent days, the Tory party isn't confident - at least going by a leaked document, exposed by the Express, showing Greg Hands was warned of a "challenging night". With that in mind, it's worth looking at the specific challenges in store in each seat.

Uxbridge and South Ruislip

Since its creation in 2010, Uxbridge has been a previously solid Tory seat - it was, of course, previously occupied by Boris Johnson. Despite the fact, at 7,210, it is currently sat on the smallest Tory majority of all three seats being competed, betting odds suggest the Tories have a better chance here than in Somerton. One reason for this could be a pre-election constituency poll showing the Conservatives (under Boris) cruising to victory and another could be local factors - including crime, ULEZ and Sadiq Khan - dominating on the campaign trail. However, even with this, Labour still look to be overwhelming favourites.

According to our model, based on Universal National Swing, Labour's Danny Beales - a Camden councillor, is set to win the seat from Steve Tuckwell by a margin of 16%.

There are also reasons to doubt the aforementioned constituency polling, especially now that the Conservatives can no longer count on Boris Johnson's star power. The fact Boris resigned over the partygate report is also unlikely to help the Conservatives, at least if national polling is anything to go by. It would be a bad night for Labour if they didn't win.

Somerton and Frome

According to the betting markets, Somerton and Frome is the Tories worst prospect of the three seats. Upon its creation in 1983, the seat was blue until 1997 - when the Liberal Democrats won and managed to hold on until 2010. The incumbent MP, David Warbruton, was a former Tory turned-Independent who resigned amidst scandal. The current majority is 19,213 - equivalent to 29%.

On our modelling, the Conservatives are set to hold the seat. This is unlikely. The model assumes Uniform National Swing, which will not happen in this seat where the Liberal Democrats are the main challenger. If the opposition votes in our model coalesced around Sarah Dyke, the local councillor standing for the Liberal Democrats, the result might be more true to reality.

Selby and Ainsty

Nigel Adams served as the MP for Selby and Ainsty since the seat was created in 2010. He sat on a comfortable majority of 20,137, equivalent to 36%. On paper, this will be the best chance the Conservatives have of retaining a seat - however even this looks likely to be too much of a challenge.

Although our model does predict a Conservative hold, the combined opposition vote shares would be enough for Labour's Keir Mather to pip Claire Holmes. Keir currently works for the CBI and, if elected, would be the youngest Member of Parliament. Labour seem confident this will come to fruition. On their own social media channels, they're sharing bar charts predicting a Labour win - as far as expectation management goes it's quite something.

Overall, despite their current majorities, because of the current state of polling, patterns of recent by-elections and general levels of expectation, the Conservatives would do well to hold on to just one of the seats.

As with all by-elections, the contests are each unique, with different electorates and perhaps a more local focus. It will also not necessarily be simple to apply the results to the national polling picture - though it is also worth looking out how the Reform UK (and Reclaim in Uxbridge) vote shares compare. Either way, the result will be of great significance; if not for themself, then for the influence they will have over the media narrative in the coming days. Barring any significant upsets, you can expect to hear a lot of Conservatives parrot the line that "governments never do well in by-elections." Nor do Uniform National Swing models.