YouGov MRP: Why Scotland Could Decide the Next Election
The SNP are on course to have their worst result in a General Election since 2010, according to a new MRP poll from YouGov. Following the recent downturn in the party's fortune, Labour looks set to recuperate swathes of their historic heartlands, paving the way for a more favourable electoral map. On current polling, the SNP would maintain their position as the top party, on 27 seats, with Labour close behind on 24. The Liberal Democrats and Conservatives lag behind on 4 each.
The specific figures are worth one major caveat - Scotland is home to a high concentration of marginal constituencies. This means seat forecasts are liable to a magnified margin for error, whilst also pointing to the disproportionately large impact on seats of a smaller shift in public opinion. It also lends strength to the potential of much-touted unionist tactical voting to influence electoral outcomes.
Even with this caveat, the results clearly bode well for Labour. Returning to a competitive position in Scotland makes their electoral geography far more efficient. Whilst seats in Scotland and Wales disproportionately make up Labour's easiest path to a majority. On the current state of polling, which points to a modest Labour majority, twenty-odd gains would be crucial.
Taking a look into the MRP's specific predictions, Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross would lose his seat to the SNP, alongside Andrew Bowie. In addition to a collapse in Glasgow, the SNP would also lose their Deputy Leader Mhairi Black.
As previously covered in more detail, MRP polling relies on larger samples of voters and asks voters for information about themselves as well as target questions. This then provides a quantitative link between said variables and voter behaviour, which can be applied to a wider known data set on an aggregate level. In the case of political polling, this allows results to be extrapolated across constituencies. This poll relies on a sample size of 3,586 - which is small, relative to other MRPs, though still much larger than the vast majority of traditional Scotland-specific polls.
We may well get one test of this MRP - and the implied SNP collapse - sooner rather than later. One of the seats forecast to change hands is Rutherglen and Hamilton West, home to Independent MP Margaret Ferrier, which looks set for a by-election. As a benchmark, YouGov forecasts Labour to get 42% of the vote, to 37% for the SNP and 12% for the Conservatives. How this result compares will be a useful barometer, both for this MRP model, and the scope for Labour's Scottish resurgence.
