Psephology
As some have pointed out it is statistically speaking risky to forecast particular outcomes that are actually within the margin of error. This risk is somewhat compounded by our algorithm applying national trends to single constituency outcomes. For that reason we have decided to introduce a new status for forecasts
Psephology
Those of you who follow our Twitter (do give it a look), or have been making use of our constituency database, may well have noticed that our model is forecasting that Jeremy Hunt will lose his seat on current polling, albeit on the narrowest of margins. Considering he's
Psephology
Sir David Butler died on 8th November, at the age of 98. Butler was a trailblazer of electoral studies. He first began analysing election results in terms of percentages in 1945, though is perhaps most renowned for his work in developing the concept of swing. Often known as the father
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