What Does UnHerd’s MRP Poll Tell Us About Immigration Attitudes?
UnHerd Britain has released the latest update from their MRP question series, conducted with focaldata. It asks about immigration - and paints a stark picture. Freddie Sayers promoted the findings with the claim that of all the statements posed so far, none had as much agreement across the country as "immigration levels are too high". The only constituency, out of 632, in favour of higher levels of immigration was Bristol West. Does this tell the full story?
First, it's worth saying that British voters do commonly respond that levels of immigration are too high - YouGov's tracker puts these attitudes at a similar overall level to UnHerd's model. This might appear to present a cut-and-dry image of the anti-immigration sentiment of British voters.
The reality isn't so clear. In previous polling on similar questions, there is evidence that the number wanting less immigration is short of a majority - and shrinking.
What's more, attitudes on immigration more generally don't necessarily follow from the headline finding that voters want less of it. Polls often find, for example, that the public recognises the economic benefits of immigration and that they are more receptive to increasing immigration numbers for in-demand occupations.
This all lends itself to one disclaimer with MRP models - especially when applied beyond electoral forecasts. By applying the polling responses to a constituency map, which is the appeal of the model, it can provide an overstated picture. This is comparable to how our single-member plurality electoral system over-represents the major parties on a national level. In this case for example, 99.8% of constituencies are shown to agree immigration is too high, when this is actually a less sensational 57% of voters.
This is not to say MRP polling on non-party political issues is without merit. UnHerd's previous model allowed for some insightful analysis of sympathy towards conspiracy theories - and why observed patterns were somewhat counter-intuitive. Their more in-depth questioning on trans issues - especially viewed constituency-by-constituency in Scotland - was also enlightening.
That being said, on this specific question there is a risk of oversimplifying attitudes. Whilst British voters do want to see less immigration, this desire is by no means universal and doesn't reflect broader attitudes to immigration, which can vary significantly by context.
