Rishi's Red Wall Approval Plummets, Labour Trusted on Every Issue

Redfield & Wilton have released their latest Red Wall poll and it presents a number of challenges to the Conservatives. When voters are asked which of the two main parties they trust more, Labour consistently wins across all policy areas. The Conservatives fare worse on every issue.

The Conservatives only have positive net trust for handling coronavirus and national security, as the gap between the major parties is greatest on the NHS. This may cause particular concern due to healthcare's salience in the political debate at the moment. The above trends are replicated when Red Wall voters are asked to specifically choose between either party - the Conservatives are only more trusted on the Ukraine crisis.

Sunak's personal ratings have also taken a hit since November. They've dropped 13%, from -6% to -19%. This is twice the magnitude of the same trend when measured amongst the national electorate; suggesting the Red Wall has been disproportionately put off by Sunak. The fact Conservative vote share seems to still be holding up, even with Rishi's personal decline, could indicate that Rishi's popularity is being diminished by the standing of his party, rather than an inverse effect.

There is a positive for the Conservatives: their vote share is holding steady - at least relative to Redfield's November Red Wall poll. They dropped by 1% while Labour dropped 2%. Though, as the below chart demonstrates, the margin is still bleak for the Conservatives. Labour leads by 22% - in an electorate where the Conservatives previously won by 9%.

Despite this, the big winner is Reform UK. They almost double their previous vote share, gaining 4% for a total of 9%. This fits with other polling, though, as covered before, there are reasons to be sceptical. The best test of Reform's figures may well be soon to come, as the West Lancashire by-election - a seat which voted to leave by 55% - is now scheduled for 8th February.