Algorithm
Just in time for the election we have overhauled our algorithm to fix the main complaint of followers. The algorithm hitherto applied national polling results to Scotland, this dramatically underestimated changes in support for parties in Scotland. We now apply much greater weight to Scotland specific polling versus national polling.
More in Common
Reform UK
Ipsos' monthly pulse is out and it reinforces just how disenchanted the electorate are with politics and politicians in general. Leading Tories and Rishi Sunak in particular are all in double-digit negativity territory with voters. PM Rishi Sunak is held in lower esteem by the voters than than even
Reform UK
In the Canadian general election of 1993, support for the governing Progressive Conservative Party collapsed, and the party's representation in the Ottawa House of Commons dropped from an absolute majority of seats to only two. Meanwhile, the Reform Party took Western Canada and became the dominant conservative party
Savanta
New research from polling firm Savanta for the Daily Telegraph suggests there's been a significant drop in Conservative voters believing the Rwanda scheme will reduce small boats crossings, ahead of a series of key parliamentary votes. Just one third (34%) of 2019 Conservative voters say the scheme to
Reform UK
Above is the UK Polling Report default forecast predicting Ashfield to go Labour with a comfortable double digit margin. Ashfield was in 2019 an unusual seat as the result below shows: "Other" was the Ashfield Independent Jason Zadrozny, who is expected to run again and has high name
By-Election
Polling from YouGov, released today, shows the SNP extending their lead over Labour by 7 points to 11%. Although it will certainly be well received in SNP circles, for the moment it doesn't look like it will be enough to make them favourites in the upcoming Rutherglen and
After a relatively stable period for the polls over recess, the concrete crisis looks to have mustered some movement. Although only Redfield & Wilton, so far, has shown a shift in overall voter intention, their most recent poll saw Labour gain 4%, Rishi's personal approval ratings have been
YouGov
The roll-out of voter ID in 2023 has not come without controversy. In March, UNISON called the move "a threat to our democracy", in the May local elections there were reports of voters being denied access to ballot boxes, and now a damning report has found that it
British voters were less likely to rank work as an important part of their life than those in twenty three other countries included in a recent study. Research from Kings College London and the World Values Survey suggests 73% of Britons view work as important to their lives. This can
Keir Starmer has just completed a reshuffle of his top team, bringing some fresh blood into his party's leadership, and it looks like the government could do with following suit. Polling from YouGov revealed that an overwhelming majority of voters, some 84%, think that the government is "
Despite the best wishes of some on the libertarian wing of the parliamentary Conservative Party, the party's core voters are overwhelmingly supportive of authoritarian measures to enhance security powers. Even ID cards, much maligned by Tory leaders past, experience far higher levels of support amongst Conservative voters than
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