Savanta
Nigel Farage has written to the head of the British Polling Council claiming some leading pollsters are effectively suppressing Reform UK in their surveys. While some pollsters are recording Reform as high as 18%, neck and neck with the Tories’ support, others see Reform UK much further behind at around
We are looking for someone to write for Polling Report from now until the election. This would suit a political science graduate or undergraduate looking for summer job. An ability to analyse polling data, write accessibly about it in an informative and entertaining fashion is required. Polling Report is a
Expert Panel
UK Polling Report is creating an expert panel to generate new insights about this election - and after. Please take our first short survey and be part of it! You will then get the results before everyone else and can help set questions in the future.
When Survation conducted a telephone poll of the Clacton constituency in January, they found the incumbent Giles Watling led an unnamed Labour candidate by 8 points, with Reform trailing in third place on 18%. Yet when constituents were presented with Farage as the Reform UK candidate, the party went from
Psephology
As some have pointed out it is statistically speaking risky to forecast particular outcomes that are actually within the margin of error. This risk is somewhat compounded by our algorithm applying national trends to single constituency outcomes. For that reason we have decided to introduce a new status for forecasts
Algorithm
Just in time for the election we have overhauled our algorithm to fix the main complaint of followers. The algorithm hitherto applied national polling results to Scotland, this dramatically underestimated changes in support for parties in Scotland. We now apply much greater weight to Scotland specific polling versus national polling.
More in Common
Ipsos MORI
Ipsos' monthly pulse is out and it reinforces just how disenchanted the electorate are with politics and politicians in general. Leading Tories and Rishi Sunak in particular are all in double-digit negativity territory with voters. PM Rishi Sunak is held in lower esteem by the voters than than even
YouGov
In the Canadian general election of 1993, support for the governing Progressive Conservative Party collapsed, and the party's representation in the Ottawa House of Commons dropped from an absolute majority of seats to only two. Meanwhile, the Reform Party took Western Canada and became the dominant conservative party
Rwanda
New research from polling firm Savanta for the Daily Telegraph suggests there's been a significant drop in Conservative voters believing the Rwanda scheme will reduce small boats crossings, ahead of a series of key parliamentary votes. Just one third (34%) of 2019 Conservative voters say the scheme to
Conservative Party
Above is the UK Polling Report default forecast predicting Ashfield to go Labour with a comfortable double digit margin. Ashfield was in 2019 an unusual seat as the result below shows: "Other" was the Ashfield Independent Jason Zadrozny, who is expected to run again and has high name
By-Election
Polling from YouGov, released today, shows the SNP extending their lead over Labour by 7 points to 11%. Although it will certainly be well received in SNP circles, for the moment it doesn't look like it will be enough to make them favourites in the upcoming Rutherglen and
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