Introducing "Too Close to Call" for Forecasts Within Margin of Error

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Introducing "Too Close to Call" for Forecasts Within Margin of Error

As some have pointed out it is statistically speaking risky to forecast particular outcomes that are actually within the margin of error. This risk is somewhat compounded by our algorithm applying national trends to single constituency outcomes. For that reason we have decided to introduce a new status for forecasts which are literally "too close to call" with any real confidence. For example Mansfield is, based on the latest current polling, neck and neck to within 1%. To make a projection in this case is statistically risky to say the least. We have decided, after consulting with the site founder Anthony Wells, that it is reckless to take that risk. In making an aggregate national projection we are much more confident.