Survation
Following the release of constituency polling carried out by Survation we have incorporated the findings into our database and created exceptions for Clacton and Islington North that the algorithm will use as a new baseline. Effectively we are now applying changes to the national polling rolling average to the results
The Multilevel Regression with Post-stratification (MRP) model is nowadays seen as the gold standard method in modern political forecasting. It typically uses large national samples, analysing data on a constituency-by-constituency basis, the MRP poll predicts specific electoral seat outcomes, indicating which candidates are likely to win or lose. It can
Expert Panel
This week's Expert Panel Survey want's your view.
Survation’s constituency poll in Clacton carried out last week shows Nigel Farage is on course to win the seat on an unprecedented 43.5% swing from the Conservatives to Reform. Clacton was the only seat won by UKIP in the 2015 General Election, returning Tory defector Douglas Carswell on
Expert Panel
Last week we ran our first survey of visitors to the UK Polling Report site, who we are calling our ‘expert panel’ because by virtue of you being here, you obviously take more interest than most in the detail of the polls. 307 of you answered between June 7 &
Reform UK
As expected, the first poll that indicates that Reform is ahead of the Conservatives came last week, with YouGov placing Reform one point ahead of the Tories. Scarlett Maguire, Director of JL Partners, says 'It is an outlier, however, and the majority of polls, including ours, continue to place
Algorithm
On X/Twitter the fans of Nigel Farage, Jeremy Corbyn and Lee Anderson get very agitated about the Polling Report algorithm's forecasts. Some of the complaints are of the "What kind of poll is this nonsense?" kind. Well it is a projection, not a poll, based
Savanta
Nigel Farage has written to the head of the British Polling Council claiming some leading pollsters are effectively suppressing Reform UK in their surveys. While some pollsters are recording Reform as high as 18%, neck and neck with the Tories’ support, others see Reform UK much further behind at around
We are looking for someone to write for Polling Report from now until the election. This would suit a political science graduate or undergraduate looking for summer job. An ability to analyse polling data, write accessibly about it in an informative and entertaining fashion is required. Polling Report is a
Expert Panel
UK Polling Report is creating an expert panel to generate new insights about this election - and after. Please take our first short survey and be part of it! You will then get the results before everyone else and can help set questions in the future.
When Survation conducted a telephone poll of the Clacton constituency in January, they found the incumbent Giles Watling led an unnamed Labour candidate by 8 points, with Reform trailing in third place on 18%. Yet when constituents were presented with Farage as the Reform UK candidate, the party went from
Psephology
As some have pointed out it is statistically speaking risky to forecast particular outcomes that are actually within the margin of error. This risk is somewhat compounded by our algorithm applying national trends to single constituency outcomes. For that reason we have decided to introduce a new status for forecasts
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