Algorithm

Our Final Predictions for the 5 Hard to Call "Wildcard" Seats

A month ago we identified five wildcard candidates - Nigel Farage, Jeremy Corbyn, Faiza Shaheen, Lee Anderson and George Galloway - where applying the uniform national swing didn't make sense because of the particular local circumstances. The model generated obviously nonsensical results for these candidates in their constituencies which failed to take exceptional factors into account.

We have in these five constituencies applied a local overlay to the model where specific constituency polling was available (Weighting for Survation) or use MRP extrapolations to revise the baseline for the seat and then applied the model timeshifted appropriately.

This results in our model making the following projections on the eve of voting:

We will know shortly how well the forecasts worked out.

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What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour