Survation

Pollster's House Effects

This from Survation's CEO Damian Lyons-Lowe on the "house effect" from various pollsters is worth noting; "Labour leads everywhere, by anything from 3 to 8 points. Second place depends on whose poll you read: Opinium, Deltapoll & ourselves have Reform. Ipsos, YouGov, MiC and FON have the Tories. Pooled, Conservatives & Reform sit level on 22. Widest spreads are Labour (26–32) & Greens (7–13); everyone else within 4 points."

The range on the Greens is particularly noticeable.

Reform Now Projected to Get Less Than 100 Seats

Based on current polling a traditional simple uniform swing projection gives Labour 285 seats, Reform 76 seats and the Conservatives almost double with 141 seats. Labour pulled ahead of Reform in mid-July and are now projected to still be 40 seats short of a majority. The Tories crossed over and

Labour Doesn't Need the Greens

A cynic might wonder if Andy Burnham's tack to the left is designed primarily to lure back Green voters. If so it appears to be working. If Labour hold off Zack Polanski's bid for parliament at the Holborn and St Pancras by-election the strategy will be

First Pollster Reports Tories Pushing Reform Into Third Place

New polling from More in Common has Labour leading in the first poll of the Autumn, with the Conservatives displacing Reform by one percentage point. Which is the first time in 18 months that the Conservatives are ahead with this pollster. As Reform kick off party conference season they will

Data Modelling Now Has Tories Winning More Seats Than Reform

Despite polls since the Clacton by-election giving Reform an average lead over the Conservatives of 5 percentage points our default model now shows that on current polling the Conservatives would win 27 seats more than Reform. Labour would win 274 seats, more than double the trailing Tories. The heady days

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Reform Now Projected to Get Less Than 100 Seats

Labour Doesn't Need the Greens

First Pollster Reports Tories Pushing Reform Into Third Place

Data Modelling Now Has Tories Winning More Seats Than Reform