Algorithm
A month ago we identified five wildcard candidates - Nigel Farage, Jeremy Corbyn, Faiza Shaheen, Lee Anderson and George Galloway - where applying the uniform national swing didn't make sense because of the particular local circumstances. The model generated obviously nonsensical results for these candidates in their constituencies
Algorithm
On X/Twitter the fans of Nigel Farage, Jeremy Corbyn and Lee Anderson get very agitated about the Polling Report algorithm's forecasts. Some of the complaints are of the "What kind of poll is this nonsense?" kind. Well it is a projection, not a poll, based
Algorithm
Just in time for the election we have overhauled our algorithm to fix the main complaint of followers. The algorithm hitherto applied national polling results to Scotland, this dramatically underestimated changes in support for parties in Scotland. We now apply much greater weight to Scotland specific polling versus national polling.
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