WeThink
Yesterday we looked at how well, or rather how badly, we did with the difficult to predict "wildcard" seat micro-forecasts we made for the general election last month. Today we will look at how all the pollsters did in comparison with their macro-forecasts. It is fair to say
projections
It is now a month after the election and after a break from the frenzy that was, it seems like a good time to reflect on how we did and what we learnt. This is the first of two posts and we are going to get the bad news out
We have overlaid on the standard uniform national swing model a tactical voting adjustment. In seats where the Tories are projected to win this gives a 3 point boost at the expense of the third placed party to the second placed party. The 3 point boost is our guestimate of
Algorithm
A month ago we identified five wildcard candidates - Nigel Farage, Jeremy Corbyn, Faiza Shaheen, Lee Anderson and George Galloway - where applying the uniform national swing didn't make sense because of the particular local circumstances. The model generated obviously nonsensical results for these candidates in their constituencies
Survation
Following the release of constituency polling carried out by Survation we have incorporated the findings into our database and created exceptions for Clacton and Islington North that the algorithm will use as a new baseline. Effectively we are now applying changes to the national polling rolling average to the results
Algorithm
On X/Twitter the fans of Nigel Farage, Jeremy Corbyn and Lee Anderson get very agitated about the Polling Report algorithm's forecasts. Some of the complaints are of the "What kind of poll is this nonsense?" kind. Well it is a projection, not a poll, based
Reform UK
Nigel Farage has written to the head of the British Polling Council claiming some leading pollsters are effectively suppressing Reform UK in their surveys. While some pollsters are recording Reform as high as 18%, neck and neck with the Tories’ support, others see Reform UK much further behind at around
When Survation conducted a telephone poll of the Clacton constituency in January, they found the incumbent Giles Watling led an unnamed Labour candidate by 8 points, with Reform trailing in third place on 18%. Yet when constituents were presented with Farage as the Reform UK candidate, the party went from
More in Common
Ipsos MORI
Ipsos' monthly pulse is out and it reinforces just how disenchanted the electorate are with politics and politicians in general. Leading Tories and Rishi Sunak in particular are all in double-digit negativity territory with voters. PM Rishi Sunak is held in lower esteem by the voters than than even
YouGov
In the Canadian general election of 1993, support for the governing Progressive Conservative Party collapsed, and the party's representation in the Ottawa House of Commons dropped from an absolute majority of seats to only two. Meanwhile, the Reform Party took Western Canada and became the dominant conservative party
Rwanda
New research from polling firm Savanta for the Daily Telegraph suggests there's been a significant drop in Conservative voters believing the Rwanda scheme will reduce small boats crossings, ahead of a series of key parliamentary votes. Just one third (34%) of 2019 Conservative voters say the scheme to
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