ICM's monthly poll for the Guardian has topline figures of CON 42%(nc), LAB 30%(nc), LDEM 21%(+4). Changes are from the last ICM poll, done at the beginning of October right after the Tory party conference. There is no obvious boost in Labour support, thought the
The full tables for the ICM poll in the News of the World are now available here. There is absolutely nothing there that could possibly be construed as a voting intention (indeed, judging by the blurb it wasn't even politically weighted). Move along, nothing to see here.
A YouGov poll for Monday's Daily Mirror has topline figures - with changes from the last YouGov poll a week ago - of CON 42%(-1), LAB 34%(+1), LDEM 14%(nc). The change from the previous poll is not in itself significant, but it is a further
With ComRes in the Independent showing the Tory lead symbolically dropping into single figures... but not actually collapsing that much, a second poll for BPIX in the Mail on Sunday shows no obvious signs of a Labour boost at all. The topline figures, with changes from the BPIX poll in
There is a new ComRes poll in the Sunday Independent which has headline figures - with changes from ComRes's previous poll in the Independent - of CON 40%(-1), LAB 31%(+2), LDEM 16% (-2). The poll was conducted on the 15th and 16th of October, prior to
The BBC's producer guidelines prevent them from commissioning voting intention polls without special permission. There is some merit in that, it itself, but it actually leaves us very ill-served by other political polls the BBC commission. When phone pollsters conduct voting intention polls the samples are weighted by
Weighting Weighting by Demographics As we've seen from the sampling article, no sampling technique is perfect: quasi-random sampling by definition has some random variation in it and even YouGov, who know the demographics of all the people they invite to a poll, can't be certain they
Sampling To understand polling we need to start with the sample. A common naive criticism of polls is that 1000 people cannot possibly represent the views of 60,000,000 people. George Gallup, the father of modern polling, used to reply to the point by saying that you don'
Current House of Commons Uniform Swing Projection* UKPR Projection mysql_connect("localhost", "ukpoll_ajwells", "haddock"); mysql_select_db ("ukpoll_pollresults"); $pollster = 'UKPR'; $avscores = mysql_query ("SELECT * FROM currentproj WHERE WHERE Pollster='$pollster'"); $conav = mysql_result ($avscores,
The Phi5000 figures on Friday suggested we might be about to see a jump in Labour's support through their handling of the current economic crisis and indeed we have. A new YouGov poll in the Sunday Times has topline voting intention figures, with changes from YouGov's
We don't yet have much actual polling evidence to show us what the effect of the economic crisis is upon public opinion. The expectation seems to be that it will aid Gordon Brown and there are some voices calling it Brown's Falklands moment (see the bottom
The Populus monthly poll for the Times, bumped by a day because of economic news, has topline figures with changes from their last poll, back at the tail end of August before the conference season, of CON 45%(+2) LAB 30%(+3) LDEM 15%(-3). A mixture of their conference
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