But no Brown boost from BPIX

With ComRes in the Independent showing the Tory lead symbolically dropping into single figures... but not actually collapsing that much, a second poll for BPIX in the Mail on Sunday shows no obvious signs of a Labour boost at all.

The topline figures, with changes from the BPIX poll in the Sunday Telegraph conducted after the Labour conference, are CON 46% (+3), LAB 30%(-1), LDEM 13%(-3). The Lib Dems show the same drop we have seen across the board, but the Conservative lead is growing. The poll was conducted between the 16th and 18th of October, so was actually conducted slightly later in a period when the media narrative is in flux. That could explain the different trends here - or there could be something else going on. We don't know the methodology of BPIX, so we can't say if there is a noticable contrast between the way ComRes and BPIX weighted their polls. As always, we should always be wary when one poll shows something that doesn't match the trend elsewhere - it could be the first sign of a shift in opinion, or it could be a rogue poll.

The underlying figures in the BPIX poll are still positive for Brown. More than half thnk he has handled the present crisis well and Brown has overtaken Cameron in terms of being seen as strong, realistic, dignified and honest (though still trails hm as being attractive, optimistic, charismatic, caring and patriotic). This just doesn't seem to have been reflected in voting intentions.