YouGov - Labour boosted by economic crisis
The Phi5000 figures on Friday suggested we might be about to see a jump in Labour's support through their handling of the current economic crisis and indeed we have. A new YouGov poll in the Sunday Times has topline voting intention figures, with changes from YouGov's last poll, of CON 43%(-2), LAB 33%(+2), LDEM 14%(-1).
The poll was conducted between the 9th and 10th October so, while the Populus poll in the middle of week would have caught part of the recent economic troubles, this is the first poll to taken after the government's rescue plan. While the change from YouGov's last poll isn't that dramatic, looking at the wider trend it is a significant improvement for the government when you consider that from May to September YouGov were consistently showing Tory leads in the region of 20 points.
Asked who they would most trust to handle the present crisis Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling are ahead of Cameron and Osborne by 33% to 27% and the rescue plan is supported by 59% of respondents, with 32% opposed.
However, it is not all good news...53% of people thought that the goverment were too slow in acting and while 29% think Brown is handling things well, 37% think he is handling things badly. Asked which team they think will improve their standard of living, people also continue to favour Cameron and Osborne over Brown and Darling by 34% to 25% (why the difference? Perhaps people are taking a longer view - they trust the experienced hand to deal with a crisis, but think Cameron would do better over time. Alternatively, perhaps they are including non-economic issues when they think about standard of living).
People are, unsurprisingly, very pessimistic about the economy. On the rescue plan 67% of people expect that taxpayers will end up losing at least some of the money spent proping up banks (including 39% who expect them to loose "a lot"). 90% of people think the economy is in bad shape, 75% of people expect house prices to fall next year (4% expect them to rise), 86% of people expect a recession in the next few years (including 20% who expect a 1930s style depression).
Turning to other questions, there has been a lot of speculation about how the current crisis will affect attitudes towards free-markets. YouGov gave people a list of three statements and asked people which they most agreed with. 20% thought that "whatever the short term problems [...] the free market system with its risks and rewards, is the best way to increase prosperity" and that it would be a mistake to curb freedoms. 12% thought that the free market system was fundementally flawed, leaving a majority (54%) saying that free markets had both advantages and disadvantages and the time had come to introduce some tougher rules and regulations. Sadly we can't really say this shows a decrease in support for free markets, since there are no comparable questions from before the present difficulties to compare it to.
Finally YouGov asked some questions about the return of Peter Mandleson... and people don't seem overjoyed to see him back. 41% thought it was a bad appointment, compared to 17% who thought it was a good thing. 41% said they distrusted Mandleson, compared to 6% who trust him. 50% agreed with the statement that "leopards don't change their spots, so his return to government will end in tears". We'll see I guess. 33% of respondents to the poll did not expect him to last in government until the next election.
