ICM's monthly poll

ICM's monthly poll for the Guardian has topline figures of CON 42%(nc), LAB 30%(nc), LDEM 21%(+4). Changes are from the last ICM poll, done at the beginning of October right after the Tory party conference.

There is no obvious boost in Labour support, thought the other questions in the poll show that people are positive about Brown's handling of the crisis - 61% of people think he has done well compared to 33% who think he has done badly. Significantly, the banking crisis has been rumbling along for long enough now that the last ICM poll also asked how Brown was doing, and his rating is up 6 since them. The poll also showed Brown/Darling pretty much neck and neck with Cameron/Osborne on economic competence, 35% to 36%. Note the continued small Conservative lead here when the question asks more generally about economic competence, as opposed to the Labour leads we see when people are asked about handling of the crisis.

The media commentary about the polls seems to me to be switching a bit to "no real boost for Brown". There doesn't seem to be an ongoing trend towards Labour anymore, but it is important to note that Labour are still in a significantly better position in the polls than they were in the summer. They had a conference boost, then their handling of the crisis seem to have solidified that into a slightly better polling position. I wouldn't want to overegg this - they are, after all, still 12 points behind and the boost is probably less than Labour supporters would have hoped - but their position is much healthier than the dire rathings they were getting a few months back.

There is better news for the Lib Dems, up four at a time when they've seen some very poor results in other polls. It is somewhat unusual for such a shift to come solely at the expense of "others", but there goes. I am sure it will boost morale a bit, though as ever, when a poll shows a trend at odds with all the other polls you should treat it with some caution until confirmed by other polls.