YouGov/Times poll on Europe
As well as voting intention YouGov also had a poll this morning on attitudes to Europe, asked on the back of Nigel Lawson coming out in favour of withdrawal from the EU. The poll had 46% saying they would vote to leave the EU, 35% that they would vote to stay. This is pretty typical of recent YouGov polling on a EU referendum which for the last couple of months has tended to show an "OUT" lead of between 7 and 11 points. Last year polls were showing much bigger leads for "OUT", but they narrowed dramatically in January when Cameron made his referendum pledge before settling down at around their current levels. Tabulated tracking data is online here.
This morning's YouGov poll also asked about some of the arguments that Nigel Lawson had put in the piece supporting Britain leaving Europe, put against opposing arguments. There was majority agreement with the arguments that David Cameron would probably be unable to secure a major renegoiation with the rest of the EU (53%) and that it was possible for Britain to continue to be a good neighbour to other European countries from outside the EU (55%). Other arguments were far more finely balanced. 31% of people thought the EU was deliberately trying to cut back the power of the City of London, but 26% thought they were right to want tighter banking regulations and it was not a deliberate attack. 38% thought Britain would save billions and be better off outside the EU, 34% that Britain would suffer economically outside the EU. 45% thought the EU had become bureaucratic and undemocratic and beyond reform, 36% think it can be made to work more effectively. 32% think Britain will inevitably be marginalised within the EU as Eurozone countries make decisions without us, 40% think Britain can still play a constructive role inside the EU but outside the Eurozone. 34% think Britain should focus its attention on the emerging economies and Commonwealth rather than Europe, 41% think Europe will always be an important trading partner who we should work closely with.
