Populus snap poll on the budget
While we won't have any post-budget voting intentions yet, there is a snap online Populus poll for Which, conducted straight after the budget, results are here.
On the details of the budget, 92% supported the rise in the personal allowance, 77% the increase in stamp duty, 68% the increase in tobacco duty, 64% the change in the threshhold for the withdrawal of child benefit and 51% not changing fuel duty. In contrast, 46% of people opposed the reduction of the 50p tax rate to 45p, with only 34% in support. The freezing and gradual abolition of the age related personal tax allowance, which looks as though it may end up being the most controversial part of the budget, was not asked about.
In the past, however, we've seen budgets where people liked all the individual parts but still disapproved of the whole. Asked about the budget overall, 46% say it was good for the country, 20% bad for the country; 39% said it was good for them and their family, 19% think it was bad. There were more mixed findings when Populus asked if the budget made people more or less confident. People said it made them more confident about the economy overall by 33% to 25%, however they were more negative about its effect on their own personal spending. On confidence in spending on everyday essentials 31% were less confident, 18% more confident and on paying for big ticket outcomes 27% were less confident and 8% more confident.
Bear in mind, however, that initial responses to the budget sometimes don't reflect the longer term view - these answers will in many cases be the first people had seen of the budget, or have been answered before people saw the media analysis and reporting of the budget, which may well change opinions.
Meanwhile tonight's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figurs of CON 36%, LAB 41%, LDEM 10% - back to the sort of five point lead we were seeing last week. Note that the fieldwork for today's YouGov poll was overwhelmingly done before the budget, so you won't see any budget effect yet. For any budget impact on voting intention you'll need to wait until tomorrow or the weekend.
