YouGov shows Conservatives doing better in the North

PoliticsHome has the regional breaks for YouGov's daily polling over the last week, allowing us to look for any differences in the regional swing across the country.

The overall figures for YouGov's polling during this period was CON 39%, LAB 32%, LDEM 19% - so the equivalent of a five point swing. Both London and the South East region are exactly in line with this. There is a larger swing in the Midlands and the North, where it tends to be around 7.5%, slightly lower in Yorkshire, slightly higher in the West Midlands (where the Conservatives need it) and the North East (where it is wasted).

The biggest swing to the Conservatives is in Wales (9.5%). Their two worst areas are, unsurprisingly, Scotland (swing from Lab to Con of 1%) and slightly less obviously the South-West, where the swing is only 0.5%. I'm guessing this is largely because the South-West is mostly a Con vs LD battle and there aren't actually many Labour seats in play. The Lib Dems in the South-West are very much holding their own against the Tories.

Anyway, what this all boils down to is what effect regional differences like this would have on the outcome. On a uniform national swing CON 39%, LAB 32%, LDEM 19% would give the Conservatives 303 seats, Labour 271 and the Lib Dems 44 - leaving the Tories 23 short. Applying the swings from this poll to each region gives results of Conservative 318 seats, Labour 254, Lib Dems 46, leaving the Conservatives only 8 seats short.